Rivian Stock Is at a Crossroads — and the Next Few Months Will Tell Us Everything

A company like Rivian always seems to be one announcement away from either proving everyone wrong or confirming everyone’s worst fears, which creates a certain kind of tension. For the better part of three years, Rivian stock has been in that uncomfortable position, halfway between promising and precarious. However, observing the business from a distance gives the impression that something is subtly changing. Not in a big way. Not in the manner Wall Street prefers to commemorate. However, it is still changing.

When Rivian first entered the public eye, its electricity seemed almost unjust to other automakers. The company priced its shares at $78 when it went public in November 2021. The stock closed at $100.73 on the first day of trading, momentarily increasing the company’s valuation to slightly less than $100 billion.

It was a number that strained credibility for an automaker that had only delivered a few trucks at that time. Completed cars waited in rows outside the Normal, Illinois, factory. The aspirations were apparent. However, the execution was still catching up.

Rivian’s defining struggle has been the disconnect between ambition and execution. Investors and early clients were both irritated by the messy early years. Rivian’s abrupt price increase of 17 to 20 percent in March 2022, which it later reversed and apologized for, rocked the company’s customer base at a crucial juncture. Thereafter, 13,000 cars were voluntarily recalled due to loose torque bolts.

The number of departing executives increased. By the end of 2022, Ford, a prominent investor with 12% of the business, had sold about 90% of its shares. In its early years of production, Tesla had experienced similar difficulties, but for some reason, the market continued to give it the benefit of the doubt. Rivian hasn’t always had such good fortune.

Even though the stock price hasn’t yet fully reflected this, it’s intriguing that the fundamental picture has actually improved. In addition to reporting $5.387 billion in full-year revenue for 2025, Rivian reported $144 million in gross profit for the first time.

This figure may seem small, but it has a lot of psychological significance. It indicates that the business is no longer just wasting money on each car it produces. That is important. Although the direction has shifted, it’s still unclear if this trend will continue as production increases.

The announcement of the R2 platform has made it even more difficult for investors to consider Rivian stock. The goal of the new car line, which starts at about $45,000 for the base model, is to expand Rivian’s market reach beyond what the R1 trucks, which cost more than $70,000, could. TD Cowen analysts predict that annual R2 demand will eventually surpass 200,000 units, potentially reaching 330,000.

At a time when the larger EV market is facing significant challenges, those are optimistic figures that largely depend on execution. Consumer demand was severely impacted by the Trump administration’s removal of the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit; in the fourth quarter, U.S. EV sales fell 36% year over year. Rivian is entering that environment with its most significant vehicle.

Additionally, the Uber robotaxi agreement has given the Rivian story an unexpected twist. Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion through 2031 to support the deal, which calls for an initial 10,000 vehicles with the option to scale to 50,000. It’s the kind of collaboration that elevates Rivian above the status of another EV manufacturer vying for market share.

It remains to be seen if this partnership will live up to the hype; robotaxi ventures have a history of making big announcements that are followed by challenging realities. However, the deal at least shows that serious businesses view Rivian’s platform as a workable infrastructure for transportation in the future.

However, the stock chart presents a more circumspect picture. At the moment, Rivian shares are trading below every significant moving average, ranging from the 5-day to the 200-day. Weak momentum is indicated by the RSI being below 50.

Before technical traders begin to take the bullish case seriously, the stock must convincingly reclaim the resistance cluster between $15.54 and $15.72. It’s difficult to ignore the irony: most technical dashboards still show sell signals for a company that recently announced robotaxi deals and recorded its first gross profit.

With an average price target of about $18, nearly 40% of analysts covering the Rivian stock rate recommend buying. That’s less than the average buy-rating ratio of roughly 59% for the S&P 500, which indicates that there is still some skepticism.

Since the R2 was first disclosed in early 2024, tariff pressures and the loss of regulatory credits have added new burdens, according to Barclays analyst Dan Levy. Instead of getting easier, the math has gotten more difficult.

Rivian has not yet turned a profit. Everyone is aware of that. However, the factories are operating, the range of products is growing, and the company is turning a profit on every car it sells for the first time. Patience and whether the path ahead has fewer surprises than the path behind will determine whether Rivian stock eventually reflects that progress.