XRP Price Hangs at $1.36 — And the Derivatives Market Is Getting Crowded With Bears

The chart for XRP is currently experiencing an odd tension. Even though the price is steadily and somewhat stubbornly declining, more traders are entering the market rather than fewer. Even though the price dropped from $1.42 to $1.36, open interest in Binance increased from $886 million to $946 million between March 25 and 26 alone. That kind of divergence has a tendency to end violently in one way or another.

In late February, the setup got underway. In about three weeks, XRP increased by 26%, reaching a peak of $1.60 on March 17 and attracting the kind of people who follow trends without always understanding them. The selling began when buyers were unable to overcome the strong resistance at $1.60. Since then, it has decreased by 15%. As of this writing, XRP is trading at about $1.36, just above what analysts consider to be a significant support zone around $1.35. To be honest, nobody knows how long it stays there.

The behavior of the derivatives market during the price decline is what makes the current situation unusual, not the price decline itself—corrections following strong rallies are common enough in the cryptocurrency space. Recently, OI-weighted funding rates went negative, reaching -0.0086. That’s a pretty clear indication that short positions have taken over. Instead of waiting on the sidelines, traders are actively betting against XRP and adding new positions as the market declines. The setup appears ripe for a reversal, though not necessarily an imminent one, according to CryptoQuant author JA Maartunn’s “juicy” assessment. Additionally, he cautioned traders to exercise caution. It is possible for both to be true simultaneously.

Depending on how you interpret the liquidation data, the short squeeze risk may be closer than it first appears. According to Coinglass data, short positions on Binance totaling about $314 million are grouped between $1.375 and $1.405. Of that, about $70 million is exactly at $1.375, and an additional $44.98 million is stacked at $1.3785. Those shorts don’t close gracefully if XRP catches a bid and begins to push through that zone; instead, they are forced out, and that forced buying can quickly turn a modest uptick into something sharper. A relatively small catalyst might set off a cascade that appears far more dramatic than the underlying principles would support.

However, a completely different story is developing that doesn’t quite fit the drama surrounding derivatives. Actual activity on the XRP Ledger has been quietly and, in some ways, significantly increasing while traders quarrel over support levels and liquidation thresholds. The ledger’s weekly transactions reached 19 million, the most since the beginning of 2025. The daily payment volumes have nearly doubled and are now approaching 2 to 3 million. Previously, they were around 1 million. Payments now account for more than 53% of all sampled transactions, according to a recent analysis of 5,000 XRPL blocks. This indicates that the network is increasingly being used for its intended purpose rather than for speculative DEX activity or NFT traffic.

The company’s own stablecoin, Ripple USD, which has amassed a billion-dollar market capitalization and seems to be responsible for a sizable portion of the ledger’s transactions, is driving some of that volume. A portion of it comes from international payment flows supported by Ripple‘s expanding network of fintech and banking partners. Over $100 billion has reportedly been processed by the company’s institutional payment product, Ripple Payments. In certain 24-hour periods, fee burns on the ledger increased by over 300%, which provides insight into the throughput even though the total dollar amount of those burns is still relatively low. Additionally, a more recent and bizarre use case is starting to emerge: AI agents using the x402 standard to transact on-chain, adding a layer of automated volume that is hard to measure but appears to be real.

It’s difficult to ignore the disparity between all of that activity and the real movement of the price of XRP. Even as the underlying network hums along with increasing usage, the token stays below its major moving averages, trapped in what appears to be a broader corrective structure. In a recent interview, the CEO of Evernorth articulated the tension: meaningful price repricing, he claimed, depends not only on payments passing through the ledger but also on XRP being used as the real liquidity bridge, with banks and businesses holding XRP as working capital rather than merely rerouting stablecoin transfers around it. The market has yet to fully resolve the distinction between XRP-specific demand and activity on the ledger.

Africa gives the longer-term story a new perspective. Reece Merrick, an executive at Ripple, recently reported that $205 billion in on-chain value passed through Sub-Saharan African markets over the course of a year, a 52% increase from the previous year. Of that, $92 billion came from Nigeria alone. Currently, four African nations are among the top 20 in the world for cryptocurrency adoption. Those figures are concrete for Ripple, a business that has dedicated years to establishing itself as the infrastructure layer for international payments in underserved markets. They are precisely the use case that Ripple has been aiming for. It’s still unclear if this adoption will result in structural demand for XRP in particular, as opposed to just stablecoins or general blockchain rails, but the tailwind is evident.

Technically speaking, analysts are concerned about XRP’s head-and-shoulders pattern on its chart. The crucial range is between $1.37 and $1.40; a persistent break below $1.37 would activate the neckline and potentially lead to a further 16% decline. That would be a significant increase in damage over the current levels. According to CryptoQuant, XRP’s leverage ratio on Binance has already decreased by roughly 78% from its mid-July 2025 levels, going from roughly 0.59 to about 0.13. Even though it doesn’t ensure direction, lower leverage typically results in fewer forced liquidations during volatile periods, which is stabilizing in a way.

As all of this is happening, it seems like XRP is torn between two opposing stories that haven’t yet been resolved. Growing ledger activity, increasing use cases, enhancing institutional credibility through Mastercard partnerships and advancements in Brazilian and Australian licensing, and a stablecoin gaining significant traction are all on the one hand. Conversely, a price that peaked, retreated, drew a large number of short sellers, and is currently sitting on a support level that appears brittle under sufficient pressure. It’s still unclear if the technical pattern emerges first or if real-world activity eventually necessitates a repricing. Most likely, both are important. As usual, there is disagreement over the timing.