Intel Stock Is Up 70% in 2026 — But Wall Street Still Won’t Call It a Buy

Intel appeared to be a company on the verge of collapse not too long ago. As investors fully absorbed the impact of operational setbacks and restructuring announcements, the stock reached lows close to $17.66.

Benzinga At that time, it would have been difficult to reconcile the grandeur of the architecture with the gloom of the earnings calls if you had been walking past Intel’s Santa Clara campus, which was situated just off Highway 101 and was all glass and quiet ambition. There was a stuck feeling. It’s the kind of stuck that requires years to remove. Then, all of a sudden, that was no longer how it appeared.

In just eight days, Intel’s stock increased by 50%, and analysts said the company seemed to have “a renewed lease on life.” Intel was at the vanguard of the Tech Select Sector SPDR Fund’s eight consecutive sessions of gains, which was its best weekly run in almost a year, according to CNBC.

The majority of the excitement was generated by two deals. One was a strengthened collaboration with Google. The other was more intriguing and much stranger.

Terafab, Elon Musk’s initiative to produce semiconductors for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI, has announced Intel’s participation. Terafab’s aspirations are truly astounding. One terawatt of compute per year is the target. For comparison, the total amount of cutting-edge AI chips currently manufactured worldwide is about 20 gigawatts, or 2% of that goal.

To be honest, it’s unclear if Terafab achieves anything near that figure. However, it did signal to the market right away that Intel is no longer on the sidelines of the AI infrastructure debate.

Of the two, the Google agreement may be more concrete. In order to continue utilizing Intel AI infrastructure and collaborate on the development of next-generation processors, Google and Intel extended their multi-year partnership for Google Cloud. StockAnalysis Google’s cloud already uses Intel Xeon 6 processors in all of its instances to manage general computing and AI workloads.

Investors have been waiting for Intel to lock in the kind of steady, structural revenue that comes from keeping the company integrated into that ecosystem as AI demand rises. CEO Lip-Bu Tan put it succinctly: “More than accelerators are needed to scale AI. Systems must be balanced. In a time when Nvidia GPUs dominate every discussion about AI hardware, it’s a pointed statement.

Something that appeared the same day—almost like a footnote that wasn’t really a footnote—made the Terafab announcement especially noteworthy. A breakthrough involving ultrathin gallium nitride, or GaN, chiplets grown directly on conventional 300mm wafers was reported by Intel Foundry researchers. In high-voltage and high-radiation conditions, GaN is more durable than silicon. It’s important to note that there are two very prevalent conditions in space.

By reducing the silicon base to 19 microns, or about one-fifth the width of a human hair, Intel’s team was able to combine silicon logic and GaN power electronics on a single small chip. Lighter and more radiation-tolerant chips are not a convenience for SpaceX, where launch costs still range from $1,000 to $10,000 per pound of payload. They are essential in terms of money.

Melius Research increased its target to $75, indicating a 20% increase, while Jefferies increased its price target on Intel from $45 to $60, citing improved server CPU demand and favorable pricing conditions. The durability of CPUs in AI infrastructure and the commercial viability of Intel’s 18A manufacturing process are “both of the key debates” surrounding the stock, according to CNBC Benchmark.

That is encouraging. However, it’s also important to remember that a few analysts’ enthusiasm during a hot streak does not always translate into a thesis.

The market seems to be pricing in the best possible outcome before the outcome is even close to confirmed, as it frequently does. Only nine analysts advise purchasing Intel, while 33 rate it Hold and six rate it Sell or Strong Sell. Wall Street’s consensus price target suggests a 20% decline from Intel’s current price.

24/7 Wall St. Intel Foundry reported an operating loss of $2.51 billion in just Q4. The company’s revenue guidance for Q1 2026 shows a sequential decrease from $13.67 billion in Q4. Wall Street 24/7. It’s a real rally. The underlying financials are still difficult to understand.

With a gross margin of 34.8%, which is significantly lower than that of its semiconductor competitors, Intel has $4.95 billion in negative free cash flow. Benzinga These figures do not represent a company that has recovered.

These are the numbers of a business that is, at best, halfway through its recovery; it is still paying for reconstruction and struggling to gain credibility in a foundry industry that has not yet demonstrated its ability to attract significant outside clients on a large scale.

As you watch all of this happen, it’s difficult to avoid feeling a little tense. A company with real historical significance is Intel. The integrated circuit was co-invented by it. In 1971, it produced the first commercial microprocessor in history.

It was among the first businesses to be listed on the Nasdaq. For twenty years, personal computing was defined by the Wintel era, which featured Intel chips running Microsoft Windows. Santa Clara has a wealth of institutional knowledge, some of which is currently being expressed in new ways through partnerships and manufacturing bets.

Morningstar’s perspective is measured: Intel is taking the right actions, but there are no assurances that it can fulfill its manufacturing goals, and its heyday as a dominant force may be behind it. Morningstar That’s arguably the most truthful framing out there.

Intel is not done yet. It’s not fixed either. Perhaps the most unexpected semiconductor rally of the year, the stock has had an incredible run. It’s still genuinely unclear if that run represents a true turning point or just the market briefly falling in love with a compelling story.