From Near Collapse to $85 Predictions — The Remarkable Comeback Story of Barrick Gold Stock

The current state of the gold market is truly peculiar, and it merits greater attention than it is receiving. The price of gold has increased by about 13% so far this year. The majority of serious investors had not factored the metal’s recent surge into their models. However, during that same period, the stock of Barrick Mining Corporation, one of the world’s oldest and most operationally advanced gold producers, saw a nearly 9% decline. Something doesn’t add up, and despite the gap’s size and stubbornness, it tells a compelling story.

Barrick is not a young, ambitious miner working out of a trailer on a promising hillside. This company has 89 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves, produces 195,000 tonnes of copper a year, and has active mining operations in more than 18 countries, from remote areas of Tanzania, Pakistan, and Papua New Guinea to the high deserts of Nevada.

It’s hard to imagine how much these people move each year. They extracted 3.91 million ounces of gold from the earth in 2024. It’s not a footnote. The modern gold mining industry was shaped by that company.

Because Barrick’s tenacity has historical roots, the origin story is significant in this case. The company was founded in 1983 by Canadian entrepreneur Peter Munk, who was born in Hungary. He began in the oil and gas industry, suffered setbacks, and consciously decided to change course. Since then, the company has been characterized by this kind of institutional stubbornness—the readiness to endure suffering and reposition.

Few people knew what they were sitting on when Barrick bought the Goldstrike property in the 1980s. In the end, it proved to be one of the most successful gold mines in North American history. The company’s transformation from a faltering resource company to a major player in the world market wasn’t coincidental. It was based on deliberate hostility.

Production costs are the main source of Wall Street’s current annoyance with Barrick Gold stock. In 2024, all-in sustaining costs were $1,484 per ounce, and analysts have been observing this increase with obvious concern. The concern is not unreasonable. Margins are compressed by higher costs, and they may become uncomfortably thin if gold prices eventually decline.

Even though every macro signal indicates that demand will continue, markets appear to be pricing in a scenario where high gold prices just don’t last. This seems like a miscalculation. In an April 2025 broadcast, Jim Cramer stated clearly that the stock is trading as if no one thinks these higher gold prices will last. From someone who watches this tape every day, that is a startling observation.

The irony in Cramer’s subsequent remark is difficult to ignore. He proposed that Barrick could mine gold more affordably by repurchasing its own stock rather than operating the equipment. That is not a line to be thrown away. That is a valuation-related remark, and it proved to be accurate in a rather dramatic way. Barrick’s stock price has reportedly increased by nearly 100% since that episode aired. The underlying reasoning was sound, but it remains to be seen if that momentum will continue.

As of mid-2025, the technical picture is genuinely conflicting. Barrick is still below the 50-day average at $62.48, but it is trading above its 20-day moving average at C$58. A floor of longer-term confidence is represented by the 200-day average, which is currently at about $49. Traders Union analysts have identified $60.08 as the crucial resistance level to keep an eye on.

Until Barrick convincingly breaks through that level, the stock is likely to move sideways between $56 and $59. Although that type of consolidation isn’t particularly exciting, it also isn’t always negative. The market is just getting started.

The company’s structural repositioning is what currently adds real intrigue to the Barrick story. As part of a plan to spin out a separate company with a potential valuation of up to $42 billion and an IPO by the end of 2026, leadership recently finalized a new executive team for North American operations. Important assets in the Dominican Republic and Nevada would be held by the spinout.

A 10% to 15% stake in that company could be sold to unlock substantial value that isn’t fully reflected in the current stock price. It’s possible that investors are holding off on raising share prices until they witness actual execution, or it’s possible that the market hasn’t priced this in yet.

Barrick has previously visited this location. The company’s aggressive $9.2 billion bid for Placer Dome once seemed excessive. For years afterward, Barrick remained the world’s biggest producer of gold thanks to that $10.4 billion deal.

When it merged with Randgold Resources in 2018—a $6.5 billion all-stock deal that elevated Mark Bristow to the top position and changed the company’s operational philosophy—there was skepticism. The doubters had valid points each time. Every time, the business managed to overcome the skepticism and proceed.

Depending on your beliefs about the stability of gold prices and the company’s capacity to control costs at scale, you may or may not want to purchase Barrick Gold stock at this time. A significant increase from current levels is implied by the one-year price prediction, which is close to C$85. That might turn out to be hopeful. Or it might turn out to be conservative.

Watching this unfold gives the impression that the market is still figuring out what kind of business Barrick wants to be in its next phase, and the answer to that question will probably dictate where the stock goes from here.