By Mari Hansen Global trade is currently experiencing a subtle paradox, and no one at the ports seems quite sure how to discuss it. While consumer demand has clearly softened in parts of the world, freight prices are rising quickly, often doubling in a matter of weeks.
The floors are less crowded than they were two years ago when you go through a distribution lot outside of Long Beach or a mid-sized retail warehouse in suburban Sydney. However, in certain instances, the cost of transporting a single forty-foot box over the ocean has exceeded epidemic peaks. It’s a strange image. More expensive boxes and slower carts.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Topic Focus | Global ocean freight pricing in 2026 |
| Key Disruption | Strait of Hormuz closure since late February 2026 |
| Brent Crude Peak | $126 per barrel (highest in four years) |
| Container Surcharge Range | $1,500–$4,000 per container |
| War Risk Insurance Hike | Over 300% increase since pre-crisis levels |
| Rerouting Delay | 10–14 additional days per shipment |
| Major Carriers Affected | Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC |
| Port & Terminal Charges | Up 7%–14% year-on-year |
| Empty Container Park Fees | Up 10%–40% since early 2025 |
| Industry Source | Analyst commentary via Xeneta and DHL |
| Article Type | Feature analysis |
The numbers don’t fully capture the emotion, but they do communicate a portion of the tale. According to certain metrics, spot rates have increased from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast, surpassing the peak of the Red Sea crisis earlier this year. According to Emily Stausbøll of Xeneta, some contract fees have more than doubled in just one month, demonstrating how drastic the recent increases have been. Shippers believe that the traditional cycles of supply and demand have been subtly altered, and not in their favor.
The structural aspect of what’s going on is the part that no one like hearing. The annual increase in port and terminal fees ranges from 7% to 14%. Since the beginning of 2025, empty container park fees—which no one outside logistics ever considers—have increased by up to 40% at certain Australian sites.
Infrastructure for tolling has spread into formerly unrestricted channels. Costs for biosecurity and fumigation have increased by an additional 15% to 20%. When things go better, none of these expenses go down. They simply became the new floor.
The geopolitical wildcard is another. Since late February, commercial shipping has been essentially prohibited across the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile stretch of water that carries about a fifth of the world’s daily oil. The price of a barrel of Brent crude reached $126. Once-routine voyages are now taking almost two weeks longer because ships are once again circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope. Transits have been halted and redirected by Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC. The cost of war risk insurance has increased by over 300%. A few underwriters have just left the area.
The fact that demand isn’t genuinely driving these prices up is what makes this odd and worth considering. Retailers are waiting on inventory that they have already overbought in the majority of categories. However, there is now a real shortage of vessel space, in part because containers are staying at sea longer and in part because port skipping occurred in Malaysia, Singapore, and portions of China due to poor weather in East Asia at the end of April. Carriers are carefully selecting which cargo is moved to the next voyage, cutting down on their stays, and abandoning empty containers. Similar to COVID, freight forwarders are paying premiums in order to secure a slot.
It’s difficult to ignore how much of the public discourse about inflation still views shipping as an issue that has been resolved. Since January, Goetz Alebrand of DHL has been pointing this out, stating that there is just not enough room for vessels on the transpacific, Asia-to-Europe, and Asia-to-Latin America routes. According to Judah Levine at Freightos, carriers utilized idle ships in March and April to maintain schedules, but that buffer is no longer available. There is no slack in the system, which puts any network at risk.
The cost event is already changing margins for e-commerce companies in ways that won’t be evident in headline retail prices for another quarter or two. Today, a pair of sneakers departing Vietnam will take a longer journey, be on a more costly ship, and have insurance that is several times greater than it was a year ago. None of that is visible to the customer at the register. Eventually, they will. Watching this unfold gives me the impression that 2026 will be more of a quiet repricing of how commodities get to us than a freight cycle. It’s actually unknown if it holds true or if some unanticipated relaxation occurs.