By Mari Hansen It’s difficult to characterize the current state of the markets without coming across as dramatic. This week, Goldman Sachs increased the likelihood of a recession to 30%. Moody’s, which is less courteous about it, places the number closer to 49%. The AI stocks continue to act strangely in the absence of clear news, traders are scrutinizing every Fed statement for clues, and there is a sense that the lengthy bull run from 2023 is beginning to appear worn out.
Warren Buffett doesn’t seem to be bothered by any of this in Omaha.
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Name | Warren Edward Buffett |
| Born | August 30, 1930 — Omaha, Nebraska |
| Current Role | Chairman & CEO, Berkshire Hathaway (stepping down as CEO end of 2026) |
| Successor as CEO | Greg Abel |
| Berkshire Annual Return Since 1965 | 19.9% compounded |
| Famous Quote | “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” |
| Mentor | Benjamin Graham |
| Long-Term Partner | Charlie Munger (joined mid-1960s) |
| Notable Holdings | Coca-Cola, American Express, Apple |
| Investing Style | Value, with quality-growth tilt |
| Iconic Public Letter | New York Times op-ed, October 2008 |
This August, he will turn 96. By the end of December, Buffett moves into the chairman’s position at Berkshire Hathaway, where he is still present but quieter, and Greg Abel becomes the company’s new CEO. Observing this shift has its own subtle gravity. His yearly letter has been read more like scripture than financial commentary for the past 60 years. He is quoted at dinner parties by investors. His cigar-butt era is mentioned as if they were present by hedge fund managers half his age.
However, in October 2008, when the S&P 500 had already lost almost half of its value and the majority of his peers were either selling or remaining silent, he wrote the same advice on a New York Times opinion page that he is now repeating as the world tilts toward whatever 2026 turns out to be. “A simple rule dictates my buying,” he wrote at the time. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
That sounds so simple it’s almost embarrassing. The problem with Buffett, though, is that people stop listening to him because he has been saying it for so long and in so many different ways. When their portfolio drops by 12%, they panic-sell after nodding and retweeting it.
The math has changed, which makes the current setup intriguing. A Vanguard S&P 500 ETF share was approximately $359 five years ago. It is currently trading at slightly over $600. For those who have already made an investment, that is a fantastic problem. It’s the kind of price tag that makes hesitation seem reasonable to anyone attempting to put money to work right now. According to Buffett’s framework, a real pullback rather than the shallow dips of the previous two years would be a gift rather than a catastrophe.
However, there is a contradiction that is worth considering. As Benjamin Graham’s heir, Buffett established himself as a value investor. However, after meeting Charlie Munger in the middle of the 1960s, his approach softened and became more in line with growth at a fair price. The cigar-butt stage came to an end. He began purchasing American Express, Coca-Cola, and eventually Apple, which he held for many years. Therefore, when he says to “be greedy when others are fearful,” he does not mean to take advantage of every 30% decrease. He is discussing quality. The difference is more important than most people realize.
As we approach the upcoming year, he appears to be telling investors to quit trying to time it. Put an end to the recession probability tickers. When no one else wants to buy them, find companies that you would feel comfortable owning if the market closed for five years.
It’s not glamorous counsel. On finance Twitter, it won’t trend. However, he said the same thing in 2008, 1990, and most likely in 1972 if anyone had paid attention. The market is constantly evolving. He doesn’t. Before the year ends, that might be the thing to focus on more than any one trade.