By Mari Hansen Signs were taped to the doors of midtown Manhattan office buildings not too long ago. Not “Back in 5 Minutes” signs, but ones pleading for assistance. Restaurants offered line cooks $500 signing bonuses. Three years ago, the salaries offered by trucking companies would have seemed unattainable. Ordinary workers had the kind of power they hadn’t had since before the majority of them were born for a strange, fleeting moment. It’s over.
What many employees have been quietly sensing for months is confirmed by the numbers. The percentage of employed individuals who voluntarily quit their jobs each month in the United States has decreased to 2.3%, which is comparable to pre-pandemic levels. July 2023 saw the lowest number of job openings in two years, at 8.8 million.
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Phenomenon | The Great Resignation (also: The Big Quit) |
| Origin | United States, 2021 (post-COVID-19 pandemic reopening) |
| Peak resignations (single month) | 4.5 million departures (November 2021) |
| Total workers who quit (Apr–Sep 2021) | Approximately 24 million |
| Key data source | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — JOLTS Report |
| Current quits rate (as of reporting) | 2.3% — lowest since January 2021 |
| Open jobs (July 2023) | 8.8 million — a two-year low |
| Primary drivers (Resignation era) | Higher pay, remote work flexibility, pandemic-era life reassessment |
| Sectors most affected | Hospitality, retail, logistics, healthcare, technology |
| Current phase | The Great Stagnation — workers staying put amid fear and uncertainty |
Once seemingly endless in its possibilities, the labor market has tightened into something more recognizable and, for many workers, more depressing. In the words of Indeed Hiring Lab’s director of economic research, Nick Bunker, “The Great Resignation is over.” Saying that aloud has a certain clinical sadness to it.
It’s important to keep in mind how that moment truly felt. Approximately 24 million Americans quit their jobs between April and September of 2021. Some people quit without a plan. Some quit their jobs in service to completely retrain.
Others just refused to go back to jobs where the commute was more expensive than the raise they had been refused for four years. 4.5 million people submitted their notice in November 2021 alone, setting a record that is likely to last for a very long time. There was actual leverage. Employers sensed it. Some made adjustments. Most didn’t.
The math was altered by the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign. The cost of borrowing increased. Businesses that had been hiring rapidly in 2021 and 2022 began to slow down, first quietly through hiring freezes and then more loudly with layoff announcements that quickly spread throughout the tech industry.
Abruptly, the job boards that had been flooded with postings began to decline. And workers’ psychology changed as a result of being conditioned by two years of abundance. Once more, the external market was frightening.
Laura Mazzullo, the owner of the New York City-based HR recruiting company East Side Staffing, has observed this change with a kind of weary clarity. “Candidates resign and job search when they feel optimistic about the market,” she stated. It’s difficult to find that optimism right now.
According to The Conference Board’s consumer confidence surveys, fewer people believe that jobs are “plentiful” and more believe that they are “hard to get.” Mazzullo contends that such sentiments become self-fulfilling. Employees remain in their current positions if they think the market outside of their current employer is frozen. They never give up. They remain motionless.
Think about how this would appear in real life. The 39-year-old St. Louis resident Alex Carter has been looking for work as a human resources specialist. Carter is eligible. Carter has patience. However, every application now feels like a lottery due to the flood of laid-off workers vying for the same positions, many of them from well-known companies with recognizable resumes. The number of applicants has increased. There are still plenty of openings. Without any official announcement, the market has subtly turned back in favor of employers.
This has a global component that is often overlooked in domestic stories. The wave of resignation was not exclusive to the United States. In the UK, almost half of those surveyed said they had thought about quitting their jobs in 2022. According to a third of German businesses, there is a shortage of skilled labor. The Netherlands, France, Australia—the trend spread from continent to continent, with each nation contributing its own unique local flavor.
Millions of young workers weary of the “996” grind—9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week—were drawn to the “Lying Flat” movement in China, which was a philosophical rejection of hustle culture. In a global survey of over 30,000 people, Microsoft discovered that almost half were considering changing jobs within the next year. That was back then.
It’s more difficult to identify, but it’s easier to sense what took the place of all that restlessness. There isn’t a single month when everyone decided to stop moving, so the Great Stagnation isn’t a dramatic event. It resembles a slow exhale more. Millions of voluntary departures were driven by a surge of confidence that has since faded. Companies typically have to pay 122% of an employee’s yearly salary to replace them.
Companies were aware of this, and the more astute ones used the resignation era to create cultures that employees would want to stay in. Those who weren’t as careful just waited for leverage to rebound. It has.
As you watch this happen, it’s difficult not to feel conflicted. Despite all of its chaos, the resignation era forced a discussion about what people should get out of their jobs: meaning, flexibility, fair compensation, and dignity.
The decline in the quit rate was not the end of that discussion. It’s not always the case that employees who stayed put are happy. They are tactical. or afraid. or both. Additionally, a workforce that is settled differs from one that is merely settled.
What comes next is the question at hand. Cycles of the economy change. Workers may resume moving if inflation continues to decline and growth resumes. This stagnation might be a holding pattern in between two periods of real labor market dynamism.
Alternatively, the Great Stagnation might be the norm and the Great Resignation the exception. In any case, it’s possible that the employees who missed the previous window won’t get another one anytime soon. Similar to moments, markets typically don’t extend a second invitation.