The SpaceX IPO Is Coming. Here Is What History Says the Stock Will Do When It Finally Starts Trading

The SpaceX IPO already evokes the kind of silence that descends upon Wall Street just prior to a megadeal. Somewhere in Hawthorne, technicians are still loading Starlink satellites onto Falcon 9 rockets as if nothing out of the ordinary is about to happen, while bankers are discreetly creating presentation decks and retail investors are exchanging rumors on Reddit threads at two in the morning.

It’s a strange contrast. Even though the largest stock listing in history is just a few weeks away, the company’s daily routine hasn’t altered at all.

The financial picture is still painfully unclear because the documentation was submitted in secret to the SEC back in early April. According to Reuters, the company made $8 billion on about $16 billion in revenue in 2025. The Information asserts a $5 billion loss on around $18 billion, using its own sources. A Tesla Cybertruck may pass through the difference between those two figures, which cannot both be correct. Perhaps because they believe the truth will eventually come to light, investors appear willing to overlook the disparity for the time being.

Early June is when the roadshow is planned. At that point, the executives sneak into hotel ballrooms in Boston and Manhattan to entice sovereign wealth managers and pension funds with presentations on satellite constellations and reusable rockets.

The pitch might land hard. Earlier this year, SpaceX and xAI merged at a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion. When shares eventually list, the business is reportedly aiming for $1.75 trillion. SpaceX would immediately become one of the world’s 10 most valuable public corporations if that number holds true.

This is where history begins to murmur, though. According to data from Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, the average first-day pop for about 9,300 IPOs between 1980 and 2025 is about 19%. What follows is the catch. The most ambitious valuations, loudest hype machines, and largest debuts frequently underperform the S&P 500 in the years that follow. It nearly seems like a rule because the pattern is so constant.

Think about Palantir. It debuted at about $10 per share in 2020, surged on optimism tinged with AI, fell more than 60% in 2022, and then recovered. Snowflake began trading at $245 on its first day, briefly reached $400, and is currently trading at about $140, which is still higher than its IPO price but well below its peak. Maybe the cruelest example was Figma. When it was first listed last year for $33, it quickly rose above $115 before falling below half of its offer price in a matter of months. It’s difficult to ignore how rapidly the room may empty when the music stops as you see those charts develop.

The SpaceX narrative might defy that force. The organization has achieved unprecedented feats, such as landing rockets vertically on drone ships and developing a satellite internet company that can reach locations that copper wire could not. There’s a feeling that this isn’t just another space-age financial debut. However, a $1.75 trillion price virtually eliminates the possibility of execution errors. There will be lock-up expirations. There will be demands for actual earnings. Additionally, the investors who applauded on the first day are typically the first to flee.

Whether the IPO is just the loudest party of the summer or the start of something monumental is still up in the air. In any case, history indicates that patience typically yields more results than zeal.